Last Chance Climate Change COP (Again)
Written by Prof Ilan Kelman. Professor of Disasters and Health. Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction. Faculty of Maths & Physical Sciences.
Climate change will destroy everything unless we save the planet through a deal at the make-or-break annual international climate change negotiations. At least, that is what we are told almost every year.
In most years since 1995, which is longer than many climate change activists have been alive, the United Nations has organised the Conference of the Parties, the UNFCCC COP. The next one is in mid-November in Baku, Azerbaijan followed by Belém, Brazil in November 2025. Each one is already billed as “last chance”, “make or break”, and/or “saving the planet”. Already last year, Australia and the Pacific were lobbying to hold the thirty-first climate change COP in 2026, with the rhetoric not disappointing.
In other words, ho hum. It is all just the same as for previous COPs, which I have documented below for “last chance”. Similar lists are easily feasible for “make or break” and “saving the planet”. Perhaps even for “help humanity” which should actually be the point.
I am far from the first to describe this repetition. Oliver Geden stated in 2017, “For two decades there has been a narrative that ‘it is five minutes to midnight, but we can still make it, if we start to act now.’” This monotonous doomerism proffers unfortunate fodder to those unconcerned about human-caused climate change who use it to mock environmental initiatives.
Reading beyond the headlines (radical that I am), I note that the histrionic phrases:
1. Sometimes refer to specific aspects of the UNFCCC COP process, not necessarily the overarching topic of addressing human-caused climate change. Consequently, in some texts, using the specific words is accurate and precise.
2. Do not always appear in the direct quotation being reported. They can be more about the writer’s or editor’s interpretation (as if the media would ever manipulate us).
3. Can be placed within broad, general bombast from people who think that the drawn-out UNFCCC COP process achieves what is needed within the required timeframe. So much effort and attention go into this single approach for addressing human-caused climate change that anything and everything is said about it. Take any common phrase, such as “last opportunity” or “protect the environment”, and somewhere, someone will likely have written it with respect the UNFCCC COP.
The unsurprising lesson is to be aware of hype and distortions infusing the UNFCCC COP process. Even consider contributing to it all by filling in the gaps below to find an example for every single UNFCCC COP of all the typical phrases. Alternatively and much more usefully, work toward productive action for stopping human-caused climate change and addressing its impacts, irrespective of the UNFCCC COP and its hyperbole.
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“Last chance” COP — every year
COP13: “experts say could be the last chance to save the Earth from catastrophic climate change.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/dec/02/energy.climatechange
COP14: “This round of negotiations is likely to be our last chance as a species to deal with the problem.” https://www.smh.com.au/national/climate-opposition-suicidal-flannery-20081209-6ula.html
“COP 15…is being touted by some as the last chance to save the planet” https://veganorganic.net/2022/12/cop-15-last-chance-saloon
COP16: “Climate Talks in Cancun ‘Last Chance’ for Deal, India Says” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-10/climate-change-talks-in-cancun-a-last-chance-for-gases-deal-ramesh-says
“COP 17 was seen as the last chance to save the Kyoto Protocol due to expire at the end of 2012, which is the only legally binding agreement to cut emissions.” https://www.industriall-union.org/archive/imf/canada-pulls-the-plug-on-the-kyoto-protocol
“COP18: Doha — the last chance saloon?” https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/resource/cop18-doha-last-chance-saloon
COP19: Oooooooo — nothing found!!!
COP20: “Our last chance to get it right” https://www.sprep.org/news/our-last-chance-get-it-right-solomon-islands-un-climate-convention
“COP21: The last chance for Small Island Developing States” https://granthaminstitute.com/2015/12/02/cop21-the-last-chance-for-small-island-developing-states/
“for COP22, a coalition of campaigning organisations outlined the last chance we have of halting our race to environmental disaster” https://stwr.org/information-centre/articles/home-truths-about-climate-emergency (the report https://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/conflicts_of_interest/2016/csr-foei-setting-the-path.pdf does not talk about “last chance”.)
“COP 23 is the conference of the last chance” http://climatdeveloppement.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/note_de_position-RCD-COP-23-anglais.pdf
“COP24 climate summit in Katowice was billed as a last chance to actually implement the Paris Agreement.” https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/special_report/after-the-cop-where-next-for-climate-action/
“COP25 was the ‘last chance, the last call to make the case for raising ambition in 2020’”. https://www.climateforesight.eu/articles/un-climate-talks-success-failure-cop25
“we see COP 25 as the last opportunity to take decisive action” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50588128
“COP26 is the last chance saloon — Prince Charles” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-59110031
“COP27 has been deemed the world’s ‘last chance’ to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.” https://aura-consultants.com/cop27-last-chance-for-change
“COP28 ‘last’ chance to keep 1.5C target alive” https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-climate-envoy-says-cop28-last-chance-to-keep-1-5c-target-alive-101702328836674.html
“Will COP 29 Be the Last Chance to Save Our Planet? All Eyes on Baku?” https://citylife.az/magazine-content/en/1686/will-cop-29-be-the-last-chance-to-save-our-planet-all-eyes-on-baku
“Silva expressed Brazil’s desire to host COP 30 in 2025. She highlighted this as a pivotal event, marking it our ‘last chance’ to act.” https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil-boosts-climate-goals-for-2025-and-2030
